We’re moving into another era, as the toxic effects of the bubble and its grave consequencesspread through the financial system. Just a couple of years ago investors dreamed of 20 percentre turns forever. Now surveys show that they’re down to a “realistic”8 percent to 10 percent range.But what if the next few years turn out to be below normal expectations? Martin Barners of the Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal expects future stock returns to average just 4 percent to 6percent. Sound impossible? After a much smaller bubble that burst in the mid-1960s Standard &Poor’s 5000 stock average returned 6.9 percent a year (with dividends reinvested) for the following 17 years. Few investors are prepared for that.Right now denial seems to be the attitude of choice. That’s typical, says Lori Lucas of Hewitt,the consulting firm. You hate to look at your investments when they’re going down. Hewitt tracks500,000 401 (k) accounts every day, and finds that savers are keeping their contributions up. But they’re much less inclined to switch their money around. “It’s the slot-machine effect,” Lucas says.“People get more interested in playing when they think they’ve got a hot machine”—and nothing’shot today. The average investor feels overwhelmed.Against all common sense, many savers still shut their eyes to the dangers of owning too much company stock. In big companies last year, a surprising 29 percent of employees held at least three quarters of their 402 (k) in their own stock.Younger employees may have no choice. You often have to wait until you’re 50 or 55 before you can sell any company stock you get as a matching contribution.But instead of getting out when they can, old participants have been holding, too. One third of the people 60 and up chose company stock for three quarters of their plan, Hewitt reports. Are they inattentive? Loyal to a fault? Sick? It’s as if Lucent, Enron and Xerox never happened.No investor should give his or her total trust to any particular company’s stock. And while you’re at it, think how you’d be if future stock returns—averaging good years and bad—are as poor as Barnes predicts.If you ask me, diversified stocks remain good for the long run, with a backup in bonds. But I,too, am figuring on reduced returns. What a shame. Dear bubble, I’ll never forget. It’s the end of agrand affair.
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